- Bitcoin’s four-year cycle includes accumulation, markup, distribution, and bear market phases with consistent price peaks and troughs.
- The current markup phase indicates potential for sustained price growth, leading to a projected peak in October 2025.
- Fractal analysis reveals smaller, short-term cycles that align with broader trends, aiding investors in strategic decisions.
Bitcoin’s price has followed an extraordinary 4-year cycle since 2015, claims analyst Alphractal. This cycle consists of accumulation, markup, distribution, and bear market phases. Each phase has been precise in marking price tops and bottoms.
The current cycle suggests a potential peak in October 2025 and a bottom by October 2026. Notably, Bitcoin remains in its markup phase, presenting growth opportunities for investors. These insights come from fractal analysis, widely studied in financial markets, making Bitcoin’s predictability remarkable despite its volatility.
Phases of Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle
The recurrent cycle of Bitcoin initially appeared between 2012 and 2014. During this time, the markup phase pushed prices upward, followed by a distribution phase. This led to a sharp decline and a bear market in 2015. The next cycle (2015–2018) mirrored this pattern, with the price peaking in late 2017. By 2018, Bitcoin had another bear market, reaching its lowest point in early 2019.
Source: Alphractal
Comparable trends were noted throughout the most recent cycle, which spanned 2019–2022. Prices surged during the markup phase, peaking in late 2021. Afterward, the distribution phase brought volatility, followed by a bear market in late 2022. Each cycle has consistently aligned with these phases, demonstrating Bitcoin’s fractal nature.
Current Insights and Future Projections
The historical trend of Bitcoin may repeat between 2023 and 2026. Alphractal’s analysis suggests the next price peak will be around October 2025. Subsequently, a price bottom is likely by October 2026. Significantly, the current markup phase indicates months of potential growth ahead, as highlighted in historical data.
Moreover, the chart highlights smaller short-term cycles within the four-year structure. These shorter cycles showcase corrections or brief surges that align with overall trends. Consequently, the predictable nature of Bitcoin’s cycle structure provides opportunities for informed investment decisions.
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